Electoral Perversity In West Virgnia

By the end of last night, the results were so lopsided that the Obama supporting blogs wanted to talk about anything but West Virginia, a silence that was, by itself, a fascinating admission. So, instead of talking about the loss, we got self-congratulating posts about Scott Kleeb, the Netroots guy who managed to blowout the Nebraska Senatorial primary by beating the Republican who pretended to be a Democrat. Or even more breathless celebrations of Travis Childers admittedly gratifying win in Mississippi... which did give us a seat that hasn't had a D since 1973, but we got it by getting someone who looks, in many ways, like an R. Yea for the antichoice, anti gay marriage guy! Whooo!

Never mind, for a moment, the 40 point spread; in a night of numbers (everyone had a favorite), the one I noticed was 26%. I had planned to point out that Obama didn't reach 30%... but it's more than that now.  He barely eked out one fourth of the vote.

This, I'd like to remind you, is the guy who has the nomination "sewn up."

One ineteresting outcome of last night appears to be that the Obama folks have had to give up on their snarky plan to call this race over on May 20th; after floating that idea last week, last night it suddenly turned out that now the announcement would come on June 1st, itself a date of curious convenience. While it does come after the May 31st DNC Committee meeting that will, ostensibly, solve the Michigan and Florida question, it comes the day of the Puerto Rico primary and two days before Montana and South Dakota... meaning, yet again, the Obama people plan to try and call this thing before everyone gets to vote.

I think the one thing about last night is that clearly, everyone is going to vote before we have our final result.

I'm not, still, prepared to say I see how last night changes the overall shape of the race: right now, I still see Obama limping into Denver in August with slightly better than half of the delegates, including a seating arrangement for Florida and Michigan, and with the "super" delegates roughly evenly split.

That will be enough for the nomination, but not enough to claim some sort of mass party unity around a decision.

Like most of the past seven days, I find the Obama moves bewildering: After trying to shut down the whole contest last week, or pretend that he could start running against McCain while ignoring Clinton... by yesterday, Obama was in West Virginia admitting to a rally audience that he was, basically, sunk in WV. Last night, he went to Missouri, yet again not looking like a confident winner. Though his Missouri appearance was far enough north and east to merit coverage on Kentucky TV, appearing in Missouri at all brought up the national electoral map that's looking, many realized, as bad as Clinton's been saying.

The Missouri result has nagged at me since February; though Obama partisans called it a "big win", few seem to realize the nature of the 49-47 tie in that state, where Obama carried 5 counties, the major cities of Missouri, while Clinton carried everything else. Though the popular vote barely put him ahead of her, calling the state Obama territory always struck me as a stretch, especially since the Missouri delegates are split 50-50, possibly the most even split anywhere.

Unlike a lot of states where Clinton voters threaten to go for McCain over Obama, it's not hard to see Missouri voters actually doing it in a way that will give the state to McCain. In all of the "no Democrat has won the White House since [pick your favorite pre-World War I Presidential year here] without [name of state]", Missouri trumps all: no Democrat has ever won the White House - ever - without Missouri.

So although "it's over", we're not done: the confidence needed to say Obama's got this wrapped up evaporated last night in a 41 point loss and barely a quarter of the vote. However one wants to put the indelicate question, it has to be asked: how does Obama plan to overcome his failure to appeal to white working class voters? How does he win a map that more or less requires him to win Ohio and Pennsylvania, since even his most confident supporters have finally conceded that with him as the nominee, Florida is out of reach?

Like a lot of his bewildering rookie mistakes, this past week was a gift the Obama people squandered. With an opportunity to get Clinton to to back out gracefully, and to begin giving the big "let's come together" speeches, the Obama people seem to have, instead, fallen for their own press, buying the notion that popular pressure could make clear that it's over, and that qualms about his working class appeal and electoral prospects could be ignored. The perverse result of West Virginia makes it impossible to ignore Obama's weaknesses... while leaving little way for the Party to unite around Clinton's strengths. And on we go.

Comments

[FitnessNerd]

This is really better than Dallas, Dynasty, and Falcon Crest rolled into one!

[Redstar]

yes, yes, yes.

Btw, there will be a quiz this afternoon for all NYC Weboy readers on my tome "Pandering" from yesterday. Hee.

:)

Btw, something came over me last night. Clinton's win was great, her speech was great, and I must have needed a release. I actually became one of those obnoxious, cursing supporters in a Shakesville thread last night, arguing with some troll. Felt good (if sort of embarrassing). :)