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July 24, 2008

A Bird In The Hand, A Pig In A Poke... Basically, You've Still Got A Cornered Animal.

For what's resonating with me this morning: not ten minutes after reading this post from Ezra about airline travel, a friend called me to express frustration that some "flight coupons" she'd been given were, essentially worthless: though she'd tried everything in her power, she could not get the flights she wanted, to the city she wanted, and, in essence, the vouchers were probably of no use at all.

Well, I could have told her that (and I did, as gently as possible) - the post Ezra links to, from Chris Hayes, is a response by an "airline industry insider" who says what's been said for some time: airlines are in a terrible way, they're basically desperate to control costs and make money, and pretty much every choice they make is done with that iin mind.

It sort of surprises me that people haven't figured this out yet. We're in a recession (no, really, we are), the stock markets are in serious Bear territory... and yet the realities don't seem to sink in. There's a lovely "la la la" quality to the way many people still talk about gas prices, or housing foreclosures, as if minor inconveniences will just, eventually, go away. Later, the thought seems to go, when gas prices get back to normal... this will all be fine.

It's not going to happen, of course, and we won't. Gas prices aren't coming down. Housing foreclosures are not abating. That housing bill that passed the House (that the President realized he can't veto and still be considered sane) will do almost nothing to solve the problems. Indeed, this morning, just a half hour after listening to an NPR correspondent say that home sales seem to have leveled off... came the news that existing home sales have fallen to a ten year low.

It's the reason I think the dividing line in this country now is not left/right but economic - either you're already living the financial crisis... or you will be. And from the Crisis side, let me tell you, I don't worry about plane tickets. Or home sales.  I'm mostly worried about how to pay for lunch tomorrow. Seriously. There's no more free rides and as more people get cornered into bad circumstances... I'd say, watch out. Because there's no telling what a cornered animal will do. There's no more free rides... and the reason not to look the gift horse in the mouth... is because they bite.

July 22, 2008

Have You Seen Your Mother, Baby, Standing In The Shadows?

Well, I didn't intend to go four days without posting, and my thanks to the 3 or 4 diehards who refuse to give up on me (especially my best friend J, who posted the flowerlude - and can we just say how beautiful his flower photos are - and wrote to make sure I wasn't dead).

I'm not dead... but I'm struggling. Some of it is.... well, personal, and I really won't be sharing it here (that's not my way); some of it is also personal, but part of the political scene as well. So I thought that would be as good a place as any to start.

As you might guess, since I talk about being a Starbuckian, my income is not what it once was, or what it needs to be. No disrespect to Howard intended, but it's hard to get by on a small hourly wage and the kindness of strangers (a/k/a tips). What started as a merely interesting moment of feeling somewhat strapped has gone on to a feeling of being generally destitute. And it's hard, not so much because of all the things I can't have or do - in the end, you come to appreciate that unnecessary things are, well, unnecessary - but because writing (when I am writing) is providing so much joy, it's hard to contemplate giving that up to chase extra income.

So Saturday, I didn't write because Jennifer and I were traipsing around my nab, window shopping... which was very nice, as we both try to enjoy a new spirit of "look, but don't buy", and really, that makes for an entertaining afternoon trying on sky-high Ferragamo shoes at Nieman Marcus. It was blazing hot, and eventually, the whole day was lost to travel and meeting people, and when I ultimately got home it was too late to really blog effectively.

Sunday, I worked, and that's where I - and my co-worker - discovered this awful story on the front page of the Times, Gretchen Morgenson's admirable attempt to tie together the corporate interests in the debt crisis with an actual individual story.  That the story itself was incredibly sad (and a little predictable), only made the sense of identification all the more vivid. A single mom who got herself way too deep in debt, it looks as though she will lose everything... and still owe on her debts.

And she's not alone.  I think the story affected me more deeply than I first thought, because the idea of even writing about it stranded me for another day. Until this morning when I saw David Brooks follow up on his "debt culture" column with another, fairly dead-on assessment of the problem:

On the front page of Sunday’s Times, Gretchen Morgenson described Diane McLeod’s spiral into indebtedness, and now a debate has erupted over who is to blame.

Some people emphasize the predatory lenders who seduced her with too-good-to-be-true credit lines and incomprehensible mortgage offers. Here was a single mother made vulnerable by health problems and divorce. Working two jobs and stressed, she found herself barraged by credit card companies offering easy access to money. Mortgage lenders offered her credit on the basis of the supposedly rising value of her house. These lenders had little interest in whether she could pay off her loans. They made most of their money via initial lending fees and then sold off the loans to third parties.

In short, these predatory companies swooped down on a vulnerable woman, took what they could and left her careening toward bankruptcy.

Other people emphasize McLeod’s own responsibility. She is the one who took the credit card offers knowing that debt is a promise that has to be kept. After her divorce, she went on a shopping spree to make herself feel better. After surgery, she sat at home watching the home shopping channels, charging thousands more.

Free societies depend on individual choice and responsibility, those in this camp argue. People have to be held accountable for their indulgences or there is no justice. As McLeod herself admirably told Morgenson: “I regret not dealing with my emotions instead of just shopping.”

If you go to the online comment section affixed to Morgenson’s article, you see advocates of these two positions talking past one another, one side talking the morality of social protection and the other the morality of personal responsibility.

Brooks goes on to argue that there's a third way to look at this: that our culture helped make being in debt seem the norm, made consumption the objective (mass luxury), and changed our decision making and our behaviors.  It';s a way of saying... we all bear some responsibility in this.

I suspect many people will be put off by Brooks - he's already got a passionate set of detractors - but I think this is a moment where he's getting it right: finding the center, and saying that as much as anything, we need to be a better society made up of better people with a better value system. That's going to seem, to many on the left especially, like a moral judgment about people like Diane McLeod. But the point is... we are all like Ms. McLeod.

The problem with the debt and mortgage crisis story, I've thought all along, is that it brings out the distinction makers - "I didn't do that," "that's not me," "those people should have known better." Myself. I think people who amassed massive credit card debt really should have known better, but with mortgages I think many people were swindled by banks and lenders who did not explain in enough detail what these mortgages meant to people who did not understand what they were signing on for. But in any case, what's already happening is that, on the margins, in the shadows... people are starting to lose everything. And if we don't get conscious to the problem soon, we will all be facing it.

July 08, 2008

But You Can't Stay Here

I don't really talk about my actual paying job much; I'm one who thinks its best to separate the blog from the rest of a personal life.

Coffeehouse That got a little harder last week, when Starbucks announced it was closing 500 more stores, bringing planned closings to 600.

I found out the night before it hit the papers, because we got the press release posted to the in-house web page, and I was working.  That night and the next morning were all about answering the "is it you guys" questions from friends, family, and, most touchingly, customers.

It's not us. It may not even be any store in my district. We are all performing pretty well (though the "underperforming" criteria was left rather vague, so no one's actually sure what the criteria is), and all of that has to be viewed in the context of a weak economy.

It's the broader economic implications that are really worth writing about. I don't think I've ever worked for a company that held the place of "stand-in for the larger economy" before, even at other retailers. It's an interesting place to be. It's why, I think, you get pieces like last Friday's in the New York Times, which blamed poor real estate choices for what realy is a story about broader economic trends.  It's also I think why David Margolick's profile of Howard Schultz (yes, we all just call him Howard) seems so sour and less than flattering. Howard is supposed to solve everything for everyone... or he's failed. That seems like an outsize level of expectation, if you ask me.

Continue reading "But You Can't Stay Here" »

June 11, 2008

A Chip Off The Writer's Block (I'm Walking Away)

You never know when these things will strike, really, now do you?

I know that the summer heat of the past few days had a lot to do with it, and that my work schedule interfered, as it so often does (though I don't know I've ever been so relieved to be required to work in air conditioning as I was the past few days)... but somewhere, somehow... the urge to write just... stopped. Again.

It would be easy to see my life as reflective of larger trends - clearly I'm in a deep funk over Hillary, that sort of thing - but really that's not it.  If you ask me about the politics of it all, I'm mostly waiting to see what develops, still. Obama's done some good things, somethings that I think are still problematic... but there's time, as I said before.

No, I think it's other things. One is something very personal, which developed last night, and which I am in no mood (and no position) to share. The other, also personal, is that the current economic downturn has had its personal toll; I am feeling more destitute than usual, and not seeing the positives, only the frustrations. When you're doing what you love with little renumeration... it's a labor of love, and that love, I can tell you, will be sorely tested. One may not, always, pass.

As usual, I'm being a tad oblique... it's not my nature to be revealing (which, if I had time and inclination is the incredibly bitchy response I'd put together to that lame Emily Gould article in the NYT magazine. I'm not here to bare my soul about every personal trial and tribulation... which allows one to have a life, but sometimes leaves not much to say.

Still, some quality time with The Little Star (who has moved well ahead of expectations for standing and walking in a seven month old), and some time with my favorite iPod mix - zoning in and out on the train into the city listening to the (more trippy than I recall) "Up Against It" by the Pet Shop Boys, segueing into "Up" from Shania Twain (who could probably see the irony there, these days), and winding into "Walking Away" by Craig David. I'm with him.  At least that constitutes moving. And then this constitutes writing. Off of the block.

May 01, 2008

M Is For The Many Things She Gave Me...

With apologies to To Whom It May Concern, for swiping the concept...

Dear Barneys -

I am touched by your thoughtful suggestions for Mother's Day, but... I have to tell you, my Mom is 73.  She's not really looking for a "jewel thong slide" kind of thing, not anymore... well, not ever, really.  Now, if the Mom in question were Gwyneth Paltrow, maybe... but then I wouldn't be buying it for "Mom", I'd be buying it for "my baby's mama."

I just think we should try and be more precise with our words... or at least our marketing... don't you?

But hey, looking forward to seeing Christian Louboutin tonight (thanks, Jennifer!).  See ya then!

Kisses
NYC Weboy

Barneys_pic

March 07, 2008

You Want The Bad News... Or The Bad News?

I keep meaning to write about the economy.  I do.  It's just that the development I keep waiting for - the clear way to indicate how bad things are, and how poorly we're able to deal with it - never quite comes.  Except maybe this week, reality has started to sink in.

In a week of bad news, today was merely the icing - by almost any measure, the economy is looking to be in terrible shape.  Today we learned that non-farm payrolls fell for the second straight month, in spite of expectations of a slight uptick (you could also discuss why this is a terrible statistic, but that's a separate issue; it's all we get from the Labor Department). The overall unemployment rate fell, too... but that was because large numbers of people simply stopped looking for work.

On top of that, retail sales came in worse than expected for February, a normally slow month.

On top of that, we learned today that 1 in 10 homeowners have no equity in their homes. This week we learned that the foreclosure rate spiked sharply at the end of last year. Auto sales fell. Oil prices spiked. The DJIA fell 3% this week; it's fallen close to 1000 points in the last 8 days.

... do you see a trend developing here?

Continue reading "You Want The Bad News... Or The Bad News?" »

January 25, 2008

The French Have A Word For It

Funny how the news of Société Générale's massive internal fraud story made the front pages of the major papers... with a picture of Jérôme Kerviel, the 31 year old trader who masterminded the disaster. Where there's usually a tasteful line drawing in black and white of most major news figures on their front page, the Wall Street Journal saw fit to run the four color photograph of Kerviel, as did the Times, which had a fine picture of the bank that didn't need further illustration... except that Kerviel - did we mention he's 31? - also happens to be... well, handsomely French, to boot.

Kerviel Perhaps the more intriguing thing is how little of the story there actually was to tell - the bank confirmed that Kerviel had committed fraud on a large scale... and gave almost no details of what that fraud was.  It appears now that it had something to do with Futures contracts on the German exchanges, which turned out to be bad bets that had to be unwound... but just what he'd done, and how he'd accumulated some 1.4 billion Euros worth of debt was unclear (the 7 billion figure bandied about yesterday turns out to be the final loss to Société Générale after unwinding Kerviel's trades, which strikes me as either bad strategy or a fire sale).

As a result, finance types are trying to use Société Générale's sale as the main excuse for the major tumble in European markets this week that caused the Federal Reserve to freak out and take a 750 Basis Point cut in the Fed Funds rate - i.e. that there was in fact no great weakness in the market outside of the bank's loss; that's a nice theory, but Société Générale has yet to discuss its exposure in subprime lending and the overall financial crisis, or more to the point, what was being unwound in Kerviel's portfolio... which suggests that the sale may not be so unrelated, and perhaps more of a signpost for how rocks yet to be turned over may yield far wormier financial problems than anyone suspects.

But hey, at least Kerviel is good looking. :)

January 16, 2008

Do Fries Go With That McLatte?

Like any Starbucks employee, I am expected to have deep, immense knowledgeMclatte of our business, its long term trends and its profitability... oh, wait.  Well, actually, I kind of do; I'd say that one of the amazing things about the 'bucks is that they are fairly open and direct with Baristas about the business.

Still, it's kind of humorous the way friends, relatives, and customers expect you to give "the straight dope" on macro developments.  I don't know that Wendy's or Burger King employees get this sort of scrutiny, but perhaps it's that Starbucks seems to have cracked the code on hiring potential middle managers for close to minimum wage that we all seem like experts.

The big news this past week was that McDonald's announced new "coffee bars" going into 14,000 US stores, instantly serving notice that they planned to compete with the other coffee servers for a piece of a market that's new to them.  Mickey D's, famously, has switched its coffee brand in recent years to some rave reviews, but they'd skipped the latte and cappuccino market.  Now they plan to introduce automatic latte makers that combine coffee and milk and syrups (a small selection of flavors that mimic Starbucks' most popular choices), much like a warm soda machine... except this machine will be on the counter, allowing customer and McDonald's worker to interact.

Uh-huh.  Meanwhile, Starbucks fired its current CEO, and re-hired Howard Schultz.

Continue reading "Do Fries Go With That McLatte?" »

December 19, 2007

Looks Like Someone's Going To Make The "Naughty" List This Year...

"We now have confirmation of two facts we have known for some time: One, the Federal Reserve System is not a strong advocate for consumers, and two, there is no Santa Claus. People who are surprised by the one are presumably surprised by the other."

- Representative Barney Frank, Chair of the House Financial Services Committee, on the Federal Reserve's new mortgage regulation proposal.

December 05, 2007

Money, Money, Money... It's A Rich Man's World

As I try to write up various issues of the day... why not start with the subprime mess?

Since the news in August about the problem of Adjustable Rate Mortgages and defaults began to break into the financial markets, the scope of the problem has only grown.    What's been interesting to discover as a result is how few people really understand the dimensions of the problem, or what it may mean for our economy.  What may very well be a key issue for next year's elections has been virtually ignored by most blogs (certainly the top political ones), and politicians are scrambling to solve a problem that they really should have seen coming.

But then we all should have.  Coulda, shoulda, woulda.

When I was visiting with Mom this past weekend, I asked her what she made of this crisis.  My mom is hardly unique as a concerned, active voter... and yet she was willing to admit, frankly, that this story didn't command her interest.  It's complicated, it involves arcane discussions of financial regulation and bank policy, and it has personal dimensions for potentially millions of borrowers, and indeed, all of us... but it's hard to know just how.

More to the point, though, I think what's kept this story from taking center stage is that from what we can tell, it's not solvable.  And the train that's headed right for us may indeed be unstoppable.

Continue reading "Money, Money, Money... It's A Rich Man's World" »