(I Can't) Believe What You're Saying

So, there's this guy, over at Ezra's... I've mentioned him before.  And we're going at it, yet again, ostensibly about the politics of the war, but mostly in some continuation of a bizarre, at least to me, argument where he accuses me of all sorts of things that are really nothing at all like who I am.

Anyway, in the midst of this he handed me a link to a story that I actually want to post about, because I kind of agree with him (shocking!). :)

If there's something that concerns me about how Democrats are responding to the Iraq situation, it's that the opposition to the war has been confusing to ran and file voters. Partly, I do think this is a failure of the press to sort through various proposals that have been floated, but it's also that people really don't have a context for this discussion, I think. The Bush Administration communicates so poorly that much of the information it provides on Iraq is useless, and reporting from the region, as one might expect, is contradictory and rather confusing.

So perhaps it's no surprise that opposition to the war has become so complete that people just throw up their hands and say "no more."  That, I think, drives a good deal of the "get thenm out now" rhetoric and its popularity.

What is surprising, though, is that, as this article notes, people think the Democratic candidates share their views.  And the truth is, they don't.  Although there's a lot of talk ab out ending the war and bringing troops home quickly, pretty much all the Democrats (okay, not Dennis, which is why we love him), have conceded that a withdrawal will take a while, and that it should be done, as they say, thoughtfully... which tends to mean they will stall for time while they examine different options, probably.

I'm pretty sure people don't want to hear this... what surprises me is that, in fact, they're not hearing it:

The question was phrased as follows:

Now I’m going to read you a list of people, organizations. For each person or organization, please tell me which of the following four choices comes closest to what you think their view is on what the U.S. should do in Iraq?

And they gave the following options:

1. Make no cutbacks in U.S. troops in Iraq
2. Leave a substantial number of troops in Iraq, but have them concentrate on training Iraqis and targeting Al Qaeda leaders in Iraq.
3. Start withdrawing troops within the next three months, with all troops out within nine months from now.
4. Begin an immediate withdrawal of all U.S. troops in Iraq

While these plans do not exactly matchup with existing Democratic plans on Iraq, they are pretty close. Biden, Clinton, Dodd, and Obama basically support option #2, Richardson and Kucinich support some combination of options #3 and #4, and Edwards is something of a hybrid between #2, #3 and #4. Here is what self-identified Democrats thought the three “top” contenders for the nomination were proposing:

What Democrats Think Clinton, Edwards and Obama will do in Iraq

Candidate	Option #1	Option #2	Option #3	Option #4
Clinton	6%	10%	48%	28%
Edwards	3%	15%	44%	15%
Obama	5%	10%	44%	27%

Now, option #2 is almost precisely what Clinton and Obama support, although I imagine they would quibble with the use of the term “substantial” in the question. However, only 10% of Democrats properly identify their plan for Iraq as such.

It's not just that, as Bowers point out, that so many people don't know what the candidate's position is; it's that close to three-fourths of voters assume that the candidates' opinions is the same as their own.

When people talk about their fears of "Democratic infightng" should we get back into power, I tend to tune it out.  I think we should get there first, and then see what happens.  There's a difference between having a lively debate - something that is very much a part of being a Democrat - and deliberately wounding one another.  But honestly, this poll gives me pause.  I've talked to various people - friends and family included who are deeply upset and want troops home now.  I do too.  But I know that's not likely to happen, and I know that the major candidates (sorry, Dennis) know that too. But voters seem not to, and that can't be a good sign.  Somebody needs to be thinking about this - because what this screams is that the party's leaders and its voters are terribly out of sunc.  And singing a song of "I oppose the war and I will work to get the troops home" may tell audiences what they want to hear on the campaign trail... but they think you mean it, too. And this could cause some real damage to the Democratic Party, if we wind up winning... and then troops don't come home right away. And they probably won't.  I'd hate to be the person breaking that news.

Comments

[jinbaltimore]

This is a bit late I know, but here is a link to one of those little quizzes which tell you which candidate is more in step w/our views. Apparently, I should vote for Chris Dodd. Who is Chris Dodd?

http://www.wqad.com/Global/link.asp?L=259460