You've Been Talking In Your Sleep

Well... the nap certainly helped.  I feel a little bit better, though we'll see if I can get in a good night's sleep tonight.  Basically I've blown up my plans for this evening and most of tomorrow (biggest regret: skipping my chiropractor. oh well) to focus on proper rest.

And clearing my head.

If I seem to dwell on the personal it's because I'd rather avoid the elephant in the room - the ugly scenes on the campaign trail. If I were more of a psychologist, I'd wonder at my nerves being shot just abut the point where the campaigns take an ugly turn for the mudpit.

But I'm not... so I'm sure it's just coincidence. :)

Look, I make no claims to political insider-ness.  I'm just a guy who likes politics, likes being a Democrat, thinks we can win in November and wants to help.  Lots of people could come up with the observations I do, I always think... yet rarely do I see it happen.

So here's my purely speculative view of the campaign at the moment:

I suspect that the Wright flap freaked out the "officially noncommitted" folks who are the most senior of superdelegates; partly because they had little or no idea what a time bomb it was, partly because they understand how it could split a fragile democratic coalition.

Somewhat paradoxically, I also suspect it's pushed these senior folks into deciding on Obama, particularly after his speech.

I think there's a genuine fear that alienating black voters would kill the party, and they see that criticizing Wright too heavily does just that.

I think they have no idea what to do about Florida... but especially, they have no idea what to do about Michigan. They are deeply afraid of a divided, contentious convention, and are determined to see it resolved ahead of time.

I think they've been persuaded that the Obama presentation of the math is the one that will work - they will claim that he has insurmountable leads in the popular vote, and in delegates. And they will convince, or know already, that the Superdelegate count will go overwhelmingly for him.

I don't know what they will offer Clinton (or have offered already to her) as a negotiated solution - clearly, not VP - it may even be blackmail of some sort not to make her look worse (I can't imagine what that could be), but they expect her to bow out gracefully, possibly before PA, but probably after, which suggests some notion that she won't win.

And so I think they have an endgame in mind: move to Obama, and have Clinton back out. QED.

If someone who actually knows something has read this far, and is still nodding, I'd only say this - if you think this will solve the Party's problems... keep dreaming.  You can't paper over the fissures that have been exposed, and anything that simply cuts off the primary process will look terrible.  Not to mention that picking Obama in this way (what I would call the "Crash" scenario - that is, letting white guilt and appeasing black anger drive your decision making), will raise as many questions as it purports to settle. You already have the polling data to suggest that a decision like this, in this time frame... will push some Clinton voters to McCain.

I'm not one of them, by the way.

And that said, if this scenario - or something like it - is in the works, I can't say Clinton has made it not inevitable; I'm dismayed by the rampant negativism... and it's not that I don't expect her to fight hard (or mean), but I think she's played into all sorts of expectations and storylines by not remaining on a clear path - bringing up objections to Obama that are linked specifically to policy concerns, and emphasizing her own strengths in the process. 

I prefer to think that all of this is just something I've dreamed up; who knows what the next few weeks will bring. Just because we've got a couple more Hillary Clinton is losing (by winning) and should get out now articles doesn't mean things have changed. Arguing, while admitting that Obama still will likely lose Pennsylvania that this race is over based on the same old convoluted math, is at least curious, if not wildly optimistic.  And it could very well be that the fantasy I've described above lives in the internet hothouse for the very reason that someone high up has reached the exact opposite conclusion - that from here on out, Obama's going to fizzle, and they already know they have to explain how we're winding up with Clinton.

And maybe I'm just talking in my sleep.  In which case... I should just stop talking.

Comments

[donatra]

I support Hilary (I, too, think she's stronger on the issues), but at the risk of being called a Judas (don't be hating, Carville), if Obama still remains ahead in all the numbers, and the nomination is handed to Hilary, even though it's within the rules, I'm not sure how gleeful we Hilary supporters should be about that. I'm certainly not comfortable with it. I mean, by any measure, when compared to Obama's, Hilary has run a suprisingly inept campaign. At this point, she should be making a better case for herself as president, and she hasn't. She's totally lost her way, or "path" as you say. This "never give up, never surrender," approach of hers is one of her greatest strengths, but I fear it's also her greatest weakness. Here's hoping she finds her path again, for her own sake, if nobody else's.

[Redstar]

"The campaign" - I assume by this you mean Clinton's campaign? You use "they" throughout w/o ever specifying who you're talking about, so I'm having to click through your links to figure it out.