As the heat dies down and vacations end, the story of this August is, in some ways, the story of a mythical phoenix rising from the ashes... I'm speaking of course of the sudden "resurgence" of the Republican Party.
Day after day, the drumbeat of polling suggests that opposition to health reform, as well as the challenges of other governmental projects (like Cash for Clunkers), and the general sense of economic distress has "ruined" president Obama's popularity and sent many folks rushing back to the Republican Party.
Aside from the fact that I think poll driven news writing is the worst kind of lazy journalism (except possibly trend articles based on pseudo science), I tend to think the newfound appeal of Republicans won't translate into much... at least for now. Republican - and the conservatives who feel they are stuck with their party - have not solved the very basic problems made clear in the last two election cycles. Indeed, if anything, the August "resurgence" tends to underline what hasn't happened more starkly than ever: without compelling alternative ideas, and without fresh leadership, Republicans have, in fact, little to offer but the same brew of anger, bitterness, sarcasm and resentment that the modern conservative movement has been relying on for years. That tactic is old, and relying on it to defeat healthcare, in particular, will amount to little.
It's a little, though, that could make a difference, if only a small difference. Small shifts in public sentiment built on appeals to anger and fear will make some of the more vulnerable members of Congress - especially in the House - potential victims. The bigger reality, though, is that Republican marginalization has put big, long term success out of reach... and that hasn't changed.
Perhaps no one sums up the August paradox like Sarah Palin, who managed to hijack both the headlines and the thrust of conservative opposition to healthcare reform in two words: death panels. But more than that, Palin managed to consolidate her unique celebrity politico presence all summer with "look at me, I can't stand it" acts - resigning as a first term Governor, decrying media attention even as she sought it, and a series of hyperbolic statements (usually on her Facebook and Twitter pages) meant to garner more attention of which "death panels" was probably only the most extreme.
Palin's chase for attention over seriousness is probably more about the allure of celebrity than political success; she's managed to keep her name in the papers, and her prominence in a GOP with frontmen who are still mostly white and male and older, but her credibility is pretty much shot outside of the diehards. And it's not hard to chase celebrity: armed with little more than his role as the father of her grandchild, Levi Johnston has managed to court celebrity by taking his top off and dating Kathy Griffin. Notoriety, really, isn't hard to achieve in our celebrity obsessed times.
In that sense, the fact that other Republicans glommed onto the "death panel" rhetoric was guilt-free: Palin took the hits for heading to crazy town, while the fearmongering struck a nerve Republicans play well, namely fears of excessive government intrusion and unnecessary beaurocracy. And liberals and Democrats, as usual, were more flummoxed than prepared by the wildfire success of angry scare tactics; for all the complaints of untruthfulness, and helpful "debunking" of rumors, the point was simpler: fear works. The progressive refusal to believe that conservatives would go to absurd lengths to have their way was compounded by trying to seriously answer absurd charges like "death panels" - taking them seriously is the first mistake.
Still, Republicans have no clue how to consolidate even the modest successes the scare tactics have caused; opposing health reform may change the bill in Congress, even kill it... but it won't change the realities about decreasing coverage, rising health expenses, and a crisis in Medicare and Medicaid. Indeed, Michael Steele went the extra mile this week, positioning Republicans as the people who will "protect" Medicare from future cuts. Even conservative loyalists saw the disaster waiting in that promise.
Republicans have no real strategy to translate anger into electoral success, because anger is not a plan. If anger were enough, we'd have a different New York State Senate, I promise you. For all the mileage they get out of death panels, lambasting Cash for Clunkers, and repeating absurd "birther" claims about Obama's origins, Republicans still have no coherent economic policies, no alternatives to offer on key issues we face, and have not figured out any way to really broaden their appeal. Re-energizing a disaffected and cispirited base, and mistaking that for a resurgence, is really the whole story here. And really, that story is little more than a reiteration that the conservative "agenda" is now little more than the daily recipe on Rush Limbaugh's show - anger, complaint, name calling and sarcastic putdowns similar to ones in grade school.
Democrats (or liberlas/progressives, however you prefer) shouldn't be surprised at this, though I think many are, or at least, how the old appeals still work. Hatred of Nancy Pelosi, or Harry Reid, or lampooning Obama as "The One" didn't start yesterday; the stuff of labeling health reform "Obamacare" (despite the President having offered, essentially, no proposal of his own) comes as a natural instinct. But the name calling, personal animus in conservative anger also undermines the very things Republicans need to rebuild; you can't be seen as striiking a deal with someone labeled "San Fran Nancy" and keep your conservative bona fides. The Catch-22 is, if Republicans can't show any ability or interest in making government work, then they can't broaden their appeal beyond a small, vocal antigovernment libertarian type minority. That's one reason the economic crisis can't work in their favor: if unregulated, lax enforcement of banking and financial rules fueld the mortgage mess and speculation... you need regulation. Hard to be for it... while you're against it.
Without more of a coherent, thought through alternative to Democratic proposals, Republicans rely on a wing and, well, a prayer. The prayer would be Charlie Crist, who's cruising to replace Mel Martinez in the Senate despite conservatives embracing Marco Rubio, even when Crist still manages to out-whack everyone by claiming his prayers protected Florida from hurricanes in recent years. The failure of hope as a strategy is Chris Christie, who Republicans hope to use to unseat Jon Corzine based pretty much on tying Corzine to the economic downturn, a strategy which imploded last week as Christie turned out to have loaned his assistant $46,000 and then forgot to tell the IRS. Not good when "upstanding ethics" was supposed to be your calling card, and otherwise you pretty much amount to "more of the same" in Trenton.
Or perhaps the best example is once again... Sarah Palin, who, despite her refusal to do what even her own party leaders recommend (get serious, bone up on policy, find something to do), remains a "front runner" for 2012, not in any serious way, mind you, but as a high polling name in any survey of late. That she can command that level of interest and seriousness among right wing voters is a reminder of what hasn't happened to find new names and faces to lead the way (...like well, poor Marco Rubio, who could be just the sort of attractive young conservative Hispanic the party could use to rebuild some interest among minorities). It's a sign of how much of the "Republican resurgence" is built on hot air (the heat of summer, really) that Palin - who really, obviously, can't win a national election - along with Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee, amounts to the front of the field.
For all the polling noise, Barack Obama remains popular, well liked, and viewed as effective in his job. For all the roiling over health reform, scare mongering has had limited impact, and the need for some sort of change is still embraced by the public. Building your future elctoral success on expectations that the economy will remain sour and unemployment high is rooting for bad news... never a winning strategy. Republicans have used the fuel of anger and bitterness to get about as far as they can go without really changing what they do and how they do it. Getting further, broadening their appeal... that's the hard part. And still, they've shown no aptitude for it. So how about some late summer class resentment as the Obamas vaction on Martha's Vineyard?
As expected, the August "Anger Wave" has been more heat than light, more about the shouting than about a coherent argument, with little to show for all the noise. Democrats should, I think, be concerned that lost in all the shouting was the kind of calm confidence Barack Obama seemed to embody during the election and into his first few months; and clearly, the problems of internal tensions and bad messaging will need to be addressed (especially to finalize any health reforms). Democrats have work to do internally, work that got put off to achieve the victory of 2008; and I think up until mid-July, there was a complacency and smugness to progressives that demanded a wake up call. And here we are. But I think the mistake will be giving into the combination of gleeful chest thumping and nervous nellies saying that Democrats are doomed and the Republican resurgence is imminent. That possibility is really likely to blow away come September, along with the smell of the suntan oil.
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