Off year election season is just kind of weird; in the "24 hour news" age, there's a whole political evaluation machine sitting around, little to do... and there's always a "trend report" needed for the next year.
And of course, there's the off chance that something real is actually happening.
Virginia and New Jersey's races for Governor always serve as the bellweather of their years, since they make easy commutes for northeastern reporters based in the NY-DC axis, and in both cases are the rather disrespected cousins of the neighboring metropolis. And usually, they don't necessarily tell us all that much, since both have fairly unique characters ("unique" is one of those adjectives a New Yorker can love when referring to the world across the Hudson, and that view is even stronger across the Potomac).
Still, with Jon Corzine struggling and Republicans poised to retake Virginia, something's clearly happening. The question is... is it proof of some sort of Republican, or right wing, revival, an indictment of failure so soon after Obama's election?
My own guess... kind of yes, kind of no. There's a lesson in this year's elections for the left... and for the right. But not what I suspect many people think it is.
For one thing, it seems clear that the real hurdle for candidates right now is incumbency. Voters are mad, they're especially mad about the economy, and they'd love to take it out on the nearest politician. Corzine looks especially good for this, given that he left Goldman Sachs to buy himself New Jersey's Senate seat, then parlayed that into becoming an okay, but not great Governor. Even Mike Bloomberg has been struggling with his associations to big business and his wealth and his decision to purchase a third term (and the elimination of term limits!).
Bloomberg would probably be in worse shape except that his opponent, Bill Thompson, was always a weak pick against him, and Bloomberg's got some vaguely positive stories to tell about fiscal management and improvements, particularly in education, from his policies. In Virginia, Creigh Deeds amounts to similarly weak hash against Bob McDonnell, which he was when Terry McAuliffe suddenly imploded during the primaries with his office shopping and connections to the Clinton past we don't like so much (the one where they do anything for money and schmooze excessively). Deeds wasn't expected to win the primary, has historically done poorly - against McDonnell no less - and pretty much fell apart quickly. Thompson, to his credit, hasn't proved to be quite the washout he seemed - managing to keep himself present in the face of Bloomberg's millions in ads, and actually managing to keep Bloomberg's negatives, like that term limits issue, actually in the mix.
But mostly, the real news seems to be voter anger, especially on the right, a right wing that seems bent on dominating the Republican machine, or killing it, whichever seems more worthwhile at any given moment. That's probably the real problem Chris Christie's having in New Jersey, since he's not considered sufficiently doctrinaire, and was floundering until he decided to run as an anti-taxer, though he's probably been wrecked by a string of scandals (and, well, his struggle with the fact that the camera adds ten pounds... which explains a bit of it).
Voters in New Jersey though, lack a "true conservative" to latch onto; some are sticking with Christie, others seemed to like Chris Daggett, and New Jersey lacks a real history of deeply conservative successes; just ask native son Steve Forbes... or more to the point, look at the success of people like Christie Todd Whitman. McDonnell's conservative bona fides have made him the hero of this cycle to the right (but Virginia's hardly a stellar example of how to take that national, given a general political tendency in many places that makes Pat Buchanan seem moderate), and then there's the special election in New York's 22nd Congressional District, where the GOP crackup has been on especially vivid display, as the Republican party choice got slammed for being too liberal, and a Conservative Party filler suddenly became the new darling of the right.
With all eyes on Watertown (I've been up in that area, and it's not my first choice for future travel), I think the left would do well to pay more attention and be less cheerfully dismissive of what's happening - the anger that Doug Hoffman and his supporters are counting on to drag him into a weak three way plurality is clearly real, and it can work. And it's likely that national Republicans who dislike conflict are still getting the message that you can't beat the anti-Obama right fringe when it comes to internal choices. That will matter. Just ask Charlie Crist. Or Arlen Specter.
And it would matter more, really, if there was more to it than simply frustration; nothing about Hoffman, or other current right darlings, including McDonnell, suggests that Republicans, or conservatives have really solved the fundamental problem of a dearth of good, new ideas to offer as alternatives to our current problems. It's basically no on healthcare, opposition to already passed stimulus money, and vague suggestions of other "socialist" possibilities in an incoherent stew that works best in places with especially bad economic conditions. And no, that can't change control of the Senate, or, I suspect, even reverse direction in the House. But conservatives have clearly learned a few things, things that should give one pause: the idea that they're relying on the old "social hot buttons" is pretty much old news. The new appeals are focused on bad economic times, fear of excessive government control, and suggestions of fiscal discipline that are bound to seem appealing on common sense grounds (though the antitax thing, really, is never going to be the long term solution).
And that negative economic appeal is working, and the fact that it's working ought to be giving national Democrats more pause than it seems to just yet. The fact that working class voters, especially working class whites, still seem down on Democratic proposals, interested in punishing incumbents and feeling no real positive results in the economy that's supposedly "recovered" ought to be a signal that there's a deep problem that needs a better answer than we're getting just now. I don't think the conservative movement, still, really has a clue what to do to offer these folks actual solutions to their problems (which is why calling them out as fearmongers ought to be louder and more direct)... but there's a point where that doesn't matter. And if the Republicans do manage to come up with an idea (like, say, actually figuring out how to impose fiscal discipline that actually looked disciplined)... then there's an even bigger problem.
Myself, I feel like the current moment is a curious kind of limbo; in all my years, with all the political changes that have occurred, I've never seen a time where things seemed, on the one hand, incredibly dull and lifeless, and on the other hand, so on the cusp of breaking apart in some unforseen way. We're doing a familiar dance, talking about politics in the usual ways... but the words seem rote, the energy is off, and the causes are not, really, inspiring the right people to do the right things. In part, I know my mood comes from deep seated suspicions that the economy is really in worse shape than anyone realizes or wants to admit; but it's also a nagging sense that the return to old "right-left" shouting matches is a choice no one seems all that thrilled with, or eager to repeat. If we were spoiling for that fight, both Virginia and New Jersey would be brimming with, really, far more negativity than is out there. That anger, that rage that's bubbling around the edges and under the surface of our conversations hasn't really been dealt with; it's waiting for the moment. And I don't know what that moment is... but I'm pretty sure it's not in upstate New York, and never was. Whatever this angry moment is... it's not a right wing revival. Knowing that, though, isn't knowing much else.
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