Being an optimist at heart, I do tend to look on the bright side. Writing about politics, even in a reduced way during the Trump era and even now, I try to find the glimmers of hope. I'd rather focus on what's possible, how we can get out of the worst of this, the signs of progress amidst the chaos and negativity.
But yes, things can get pretty negative.
I have friends and family - trust - who question my optimism. "Can't you see how bad it is? What if the worst should happen?" And yes, they have a point. From which I roundly return with bursts of additional optimism.
Still, it's a fair point in itself. Things are bad. They could get worse. We do owe it to ourselves to be honest about the fact that, rather than hopeful progress, this could all just be a way station on the downward slope.
So, for my best friend, for today... here's some thoughts on the worst case scenario.
When I look at the potentials for disaster in politics and upcoming elections, I tend to focus my negative thinking on 3 things: misinformation, outright chicanery, and internal disarray on the left. Overarching all of that, right now, would be the pandemic. But that's also a separate discussion. For now, I'm focused on the really bad political possibilities:
- Misinformation - As much as I think Fox is flailing, let's be clear: on a day to day basis, Fox continues to distribute slanted, inaccurate information to viewers all too eager to snap up the lies and half truths. Tucker Carlson, as loathsome as he is, adroitly presents white supremacy in friendly, suburban tones
meant to suggest that any and every prejudice and crazy idea counts as okay. And plenty of hardcore Trumpists have gone further - to Newsmax, OANN and God knows where on the internet to find the fuel for their hate. Add in Trump's new (however lame) "from the desk" website, and it's a bleak picture. We already know how these lies have worked to elect not just Trump, but a string of right wing extremists. We know that it works for them, and we know they're not stopping. And we do not know, really, that even accurate objective truth can stop it. On the left, we are using "finger in the dam" approaches to try and keep the misinformation contained, at best. This is not a solution, it's a tactic. And it's not working. And it's probably not enough.
- Chicanery - All props to Marc Elias, but right now it looks like "more hurt than skirt" on the various election laws being passed in the wake of Trump's loss. Complicated new rules, limited election times, surely attempts to limit access to voting booths this year and next... and that's before we dive into redistricting that, while not as bad as the gloomiest predictions, has room for Republicans to potentially make significant gains. Then, of course, there's the "never say lost" cycle of charges and recounts and silliness of Trump folks endlessly litigating the last election. All together, there is a foundation for setting up all new efforts to steal and otherwise fake a GOP win in 22 and/or 24. Republicans gaining back control of the federal legislative branch, however solid Biden is, could spell disaster. "Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy" is just chilling. More urgently, we may not survive another length of time with Mitch McConnell driving what's left of a working Senate into the ground... but never mind him, look at what would be there if he left. The Republican Party is broken, it's a zombie party... all the rest. But those broken down zombies could, with a few well timed wins, take our representative Democratic Republic with them as they go. And that reality should terrify us all.
- Disarray - This isn't "I'm concerned about Joe Manchin." At worst, Manchin is the canary in his own coal mine of what could easily get worse: you can't have infighting in a serious way until both sides declare war. Repeated, excessive intransigence from Manchin and other "moderates" that succeeds in riling up the Sanders/Warren et al hard left is when this gets really bad, as both sides offer up "my way or the highway" proposals that stop progress of any kind in its tracks. So far, Biden has shown a deft touch, and Schumer and Pelosi are masters of political 3 dimensional chess; but one can feel the slender threads holding all of this together, and sense that already some of them are snapping. We're not doomed yet. But if HR1 is officially dead, if police reform permanently stalls... what then? Will the student left be placated by "we can't just blow up the legislative filibuster?" Probably not. Or, worse, we blow up the filibuster... and still lose. Democrats losing the ability to speak in generally one voice, or to face voters with singular focus, is a moment waiting to happen. When it does... we may all have to face a leadership vacuum we've been trying to avoid with octogenarians and Stacy Abrams. And it won't be pretty.
Disarray plus chicanery times misinformation... the math is clearly there to signal serious trouble, should all bad things come to pass. Fake stories and doctored evidence of an Arizona recount. Failures to legislate the cause deep divisions among democrats. Redistricting that gerrymanders worse than ever. All of these, and much more, are certainly very real threats. So is a justice system that fails to appropriately bring rioters to justice, combined with a Supreme Court with a super majority that could not only stall fairness, but truly set it back further.
This is the point where I usually say to my naysaying pals "that's a lot of bad news that all has to fall your way" as I try to remind folks that Trump and his merry band of incompetents can hardly master telling untruths with a straight face, never mind pull off a massive interstate conspiracy designed to interfere with every level of our election process. But... to be fair, I'm the one who can't quite prove that it could all go our way. There's plenty of reasonable, not that far fetched, scenarios that end very badly for democrats, the rule of law, free and fair elections and our system of justice. And that's not, in any sense, good news.
There's a lot of bad that could happen. The worst case scenario is definitely out there, it's not implausible, or even unlikely, depending on what you see. It's a fair point to wonder why we should hope for anything, and if we abandon hope, it's fair, I think, to see a lot of potential trouble dead ahead. I have no "but" to put in here, no little ray of Mary Sunshine to cheer this up, no "I'm just a cockeyed optimist" to sing you to comforting sleep. The nightmare scenario is a real nightmare, one we could really face. If that scares into you getting up and doing something... well, good. Let's hope that's not too late. Because god knows, it could really be as bad as my pessimistic friends want to believe.
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